Mapping and Modelling the Geographical Distribution and Environmental Limits of Podoconiosis in Ethiopia
Identifieur interne : 001B25 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001B24; suivant : 001B26Mapping and Modelling the Geographical Distribution and Environmental Limits of Podoconiosis in Ethiopia
Auteurs : Kebede Deribe [Royaume-Uni, Éthiopie] ; Jorge Cano [Royaume-Uni] ; Melanie J. Newport [Royaume-Uni] ; Nick Golding [Royaume-Uni] ; Rachel L. Pullan [Royaume-Uni] ; Heven Sime [Éthiopie] ; Abeba Gebretsadik [Éthiopie] ; Ashenafi Assefa [Éthiopie] ; Amha Kebede [Éthiopie] ; Asrat Hailu [Éthiopie] ; Maria P. Rebollo [Royaume-Uni] ; Oumer Shafi [Éthiopie] ; Moses J. Bockarie [Royaume-Uni] ; Abraham Aseffa [Éthiopie] ; Simon I. Hay [Royaume-Uni, États-Unis] ; Richard Reithinger [Royaume-Uni, États-Unis] ; Fikre Enquselassie [Éthiopie] ; Gail Davey [Royaume-Uni] ; Simon J. Brooker [Royaume-Uni]Source :
- PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases [ 1935-2727 ] ; 2015.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- épidémiologie : Éléphantiasis, Éthiopie.
- Facteurs de risque, Humains, Modèles biologiques, Prévalence.
- Wicri :
- geographic : Éthiopie.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Ethiopia.
- epidemiology : Elephantiasis.
- Humans, Models, Biological, Prevalence, Risk Factors.
Abstract
Ethiopia is assumed to have the highest burden of podoconiosis globally, but the geographical distribution and environmental limits and correlates are yet to be fully investigated. In this paper we use data from a nationwide survey to address these issues.
Our analyses are based on data arising from the integrated mapping of podoconiosis and lymphatic filariasis (LF) conducted in 2013, supplemented by data from an earlier mapping of LF in western Ethiopia in 2008–2010. The integrated mapping used
Data were available for 141,238 individuals from 1,442 communities in 775 districts from all nine regional states and two city administrations of Ethiopia. In 41.9% of surveyed districts no cases of podoconiosis were identified, with all districts in Affar, Dire Dawa, Somali and Gambella regional states lacking the disease. The disease was most common, with lymphoedema positivity rate exceeding 5%, in the central highlands of Ethiopia, in Amhara, Oromia and Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples regional states. BRT modelling indicated that the probability of podoconiosis occurrence increased with increasing altitude, precipitation and silt fraction of soil and decreased with population density and clay content. Based on the BRT model, we estimate that in 2010, 34.9 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 20.2–51.7) million people (i.e. 43.8%; 95% CI: 25.3–64.8% of Ethiopia’s national population) lived in areas environmentally suitable for the occurrence of podoconiosis.
Podoconiosis is more widespread in Ethiopia than previously estimated, but occurs in distinct geographical regions that are tied to identifiable environmental factors. The resultant maps can be used to guide programme planning and implementation and estimate disease burden in Ethiopia. This work provides a framework with which the geographical limits of podoconiosis could be delineated at a continental scale.
Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003946
PubMed: 26222887
PubMed Central: 4519246
Affiliations:
- Royaume-Uni, États-Unis, Éthiopie
- Angleterre, Grand Londres, Maryland, Oxfordshire, Washington (État)
- Londres, Oxford, Seattle
- Université d'Oxford, Université de Washington
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Le document en format XML
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<country xml:lang="fr">Éthiopie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Ethiopian Public Health Institute, Addis Ababa</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Addis Ababa</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kebede, Amha" sort="Kebede, Amha" uniqKey="Kebede A" first="Amha" last="Kebede">Amha Kebede</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff005"><addr-line>Ethiopian Public Health Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Éthiopie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Ethiopian Public Health Institute, Addis Ababa</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Addis Ababa</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hailu, Asrat" sort="Hailu, Asrat" uniqKey="Hailu A" first="Asrat" last="Hailu">Asrat Hailu</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff006"><addr-line>School of Medicine, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Éthiopie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>School of Medicine, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Addis Ababa</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Rebollo, Maria P" sort="Rebollo, Maria P" uniqKey="Rebollo M" first="Maria P." last="Rebollo">Maria P. Rebollo</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff007"><addr-line>Centre for Neglected Tropical Diseases, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Centre for Neglected Tropical Diseases, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Liverpool</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Shafi, Oumer" sort="Shafi, Oumer" uniqKey="Shafi O" first="Oumer" last="Shafi">Oumer Shafi</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff008"><addr-line>Federal Ministry of Health, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Éthiopie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Federal Ministry of Health, Addis Ababa</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Addis Ababa</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bockarie, Moses J" sort="Bockarie, Moses J" uniqKey="Bockarie M" first="Moses J." last="Bockarie">Moses J. Bockarie</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff007"><addr-line>Centre for Neglected Tropical Diseases, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Centre for Neglected Tropical Diseases, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Liverpool</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Aseffa, Abraham" sort="Aseffa, Abraham" uniqKey="Aseffa A" first="Abraham" last="Aseffa">Abraham Aseffa</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff009"><addr-line>Armauer Hansen Research Institute/ALERT, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Éthiopie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Armauer Hansen Research Institute/ALERT, Addis Ababa</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Addis Ababa</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hay, Simon I" sort="Hay, Simon I" uniqKey="Hay S" first="Simon I." last="Hay">Simon I. Hay</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff004"><addr-line>Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Oxford</settlement>
<region type="country">Angleterre</region>
<region type="comté" nuts="2">Oxfordshire</region>
<settlement type="city">Oxford</settlement>
</placeName>
<orgName type="university">Université d'Oxford</orgName>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff010"><addr-line>Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region>
<settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement>
</placeName>
<orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff011"><addr-line>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="state">Maryland</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Reithinger, Richard" sort="Reithinger, Richard" uniqKey="Reithinger R" first="Richard" last="Reithinger">Richard Reithinger</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff003"><addr-line>Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement>
<region type="country">Angleterre</region>
<region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff012"><addr-line>RTI International, Washington, District of Columbia, United States of America</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>RTI International, Washington, District of Columbia</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>District of Columbia</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Enquselassie, Fikre" sort="Enquselassie, Fikre" uniqKey="Enquselassie F" first="Fikre" last="Enquselassie">Fikre Enquselassie</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff002"><addr-line>School of Public Health, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Éthiopie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Addis Ababa</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Davey, Gail" sort="Davey, Gail" uniqKey="Davey G" first="Gail" last="Davey">Gail Davey</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff001"><addr-line>Brighton and Sussex Medical School, Falmer, Brighton, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Brighton and Sussex Medical School, Falmer, Brighton</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Brighton</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Brooker, Simon J" sort="Brooker, Simon J" uniqKey="Brooker S" first="Simon J." last="Brooker">Simon J. Brooker</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff003"><addr-line>Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement>
<region type="country">Angleterre</region>
<region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j">PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases</title>
<idno type="ISSN">1935-2727</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1935-2735</idno>
<imprint><date when="2015">2015</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Elephantiasis (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Ethiopia (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Models, Biological</term>
<term>Prevalence</term>
<term>Risk Factors</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Facteurs de risque</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Modèles biologiques</term>
<term>Prévalence</term>
<term>Éléphantiasis (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Éthiopie (épidémiologie)</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Ethiopia</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Elephantiasis</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Éléphantiasis</term>
<term>Éthiopie</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Humans</term>
<term>Models, Biological</term>
<term>Prevalence</term>
<term>Risk Factors</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Facteurs de risque</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Modèles biologiques</term>
<term>Prévalence</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Éthiopie</term>
</keywords>
</textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec id="sec001"><title>Background</title>
<p>Ethiopia is assumed to have the highest burden of podoconiosis globally, but the geographical distribution and environmental limits and correlates are yet to be fully investigated. In this paper we use data from a nationwide survey to address these issues.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec002"><title>Methodology</title>
<p>Our analyses are based on data arising from the integrated mapping of podoconiosis and lymphatic filariasis (LF) conducted in 2013, supplemented by data from an earlier mapping of LF in western Ethiopia in 2008–2010. The integrated mapping used <italic>woreda</italic>
(district) health offices’ reports of podoconiosis and LF to guide selection of survey sites. A suite of environmental and climatic data and boosted regression tree (BRT) modelling was used to investigate environmental limits and predict the probability of podoconiosis occurrence.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec003"><title>Principal Findings</title>
<p>Data were available for 141,238 individuals from 1,442 communities in 775 districts from all nine regional states and two city administrations of Ethiopia. In 41.9% of surveyed districts no cases of podoconiosis were identified, with all districts in Affar, Dire Dawa, Somali and Gambella regional states lacking the disease. The disease was most common, with lymphoedema positivity rate exceeding 5%, in the central highlands of Ethiopia, in Amhara, Oromia and Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples regional states. BRT modelling indicated that the probability of podoconiosis occurrence increased with increasing altitude, precipitation and silt fraction of soil and decreased with population density and clay content. Based on the BRT model, we estimate that in 2010, 34.9 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 20.2–51.7) million people (i.e. 43.8%; 95% CI: 25.3–64.8% of Ethiopia’s national population) lived in areas environmentally suitable for the occurrence of podoconiosis.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec004"><title>Conclusions</title>
<p>Podoconiosis is more widespread in Ethiopia than previously estimated, but occurs in distinct geographical regions that are tied to identifiable environmental factors. The resultant maps can be used to guide programme planning and implementation and estimate disease burden in Ethiopia. This work provides a framework with which the geographical limits of podoconiosis could be delineated at a continental scale.</p>
</sec>
</div>
</front>
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